National Trend of Home Price Declines Continued through the First Half of 2008 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through June 2008, released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home(1) Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed throughout 2007 and has continued through the first half of 2008.

The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index -- which covers all nine U.S. census divisions -- remained in double digits, recording a record 15.4% decline in the second quarter of 2008 versus the second quarter of 2007. This is larger than the decline of 14.2% reported in the first quarter of the year. The 10-City and 20-City Composites also set new records, with annual declines of 17.0% and 15.9%, respectively. However, it should be noted that the acceleration in decline was only moderate in June. The May numbers reported annual declines of 16.9% and 15.8%, respectively.

"While there is no national turnaround in residential real estate prices, it is possible that we are seeing some regions struggling to come back, which has resulted in some moderation in price declines at the national level," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. "Depending on where you focus on the details of the report, you can see some different stories on where home prices are headed. Record year-over-year declines were reported in both the 10-City and 20-City Composites in June; however, they are very close to the values reported for May. The rate of home price decline may be slowing. For the month, the 10-City Composite was down 0.6% and the 20-City Composite was down 0.5%. While still falling, these are far less than the 2-2.5% monthly drops seen earlier in 2008. In June, nine of the 20 cities were up month-to-month compared with seven in May. Nevertheless, not one market is showing a positive return over the past 12 months and seven of the metro areas are reporting declines in excess of 20.0%."

At the national level, the housing market peaked around June/July of 2006. As of June 2008, two years later, the 10-City Composite has fallen by 20.3% and the 20-City Composite is down 18.8%. Las Vegas remains the weakest market, reporting an annual decline of 28.6%, followed by Miami and Phoenix at -28.3% and -27.9%, respectively. Phoenix was the worst performer for the June to May period, returning -2.6%. The markets that were the high-flyers during the recent real estate boom continue to be the ones that are leading the current decline. On the plus side, Denver and Boston were the best performing markets for the month, returning +1.5% and +1.2%, respectively. Both these markets have had three consecutive months of positive returns. They are outdone by Charlotte and Dallas, however, which have recorded four consecutive months of positive returns. Although there are some improving regional numbers, the picture of the overall residential real estate market remains weak.

The table below summarizes the results for June 2008. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

                       2008 Q2  2008 Q2/2008 Q1  2008 Q1/2007 Q4    1-Year
                        Level      Change(%)        Change(%)      Change(%)

  U.S. National Index  155.32       -2.3%            -6.7%         -15.4%

                      June 2008    June/May         May/April       1-Year
                        Level      Change(%)        Change(%)      Change(%)
  Metropolitan Area

  Atlanta              125.08        0.6%             0.5%          -8.1%
  Boston               162.32        1.2%             1.0%          -5.2%
  Charlotte            133.64        0.4%             1.0%          -1.0%
  Chicago              150.25        0.2%            -0.3%          -9.5%
  Cleveland            109.67        0.7%            -0.6%          -7.3%
  Dallas               122.38        0.7%             1.0%          -3.2%
  Denver               131.64        1.5%             1.0%          -4.7%
  Detroit               92.68       -0.1%            -1.1%         -16.3%
  Las Vegas            158.51       -1.6%            -2.9%         -28.6%
  Los Angeles          195.74       -1.4%            -1.9%         -25.3%
  Miami                189.87       -1.7%            -3.6%         -28.3%
  Minneapolis          141.50        1.0%             0.6%         -13.9%
  New York             194.22        0.2%            -0.4%          -7.3%
  Phoenix              153.19       -2.6%            -2.5%         -27.9%
  Portland             175.03       -0.3%             0.4%          -5.8%
  San Diego            175.37       -1.5%            -1.4%         -24.2%
  San Francisco        159.83       -1.8%            -1.2%         -23.7%
  Seattle              178.28       -0.2%            -0.5%          -7.1%
  Tampa                175.11       -1.1%            -0.8%         -20.1%
  Washington           197.39       -0.9%            -1.0%         -15.7%
  Composite-10         180.38       -0.6%            -1.0%         -17.0%
  Composite-20         167.69       -0.5%            -0.9%         -15.9%
  Source: Standard & Poor's and Fiserv
  Data through June 2008

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 10 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.

These indices are generated and published under agreements between Standard & Poor's and Fiserv, Inc. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are produced by Fiserv, Inc. In addition to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, Fiserv also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by Standard & Poor's, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through Fiserv.

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