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Year End Numbers Mark Widespread Declines According to the S&P/Case-Shiller(R) Home Price Indices
Data through December 2007, released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller(R) Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, marking 2007 as a full year of declining home prices.
The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller(R) U.S. National Home Price Index -- which covers all nine U.S. census divisions -- neared double digits, posting -8.9% versus the 4th quarter of 2006, the largest decline in the series 20-year history. During the 1990-91 housing recession the annual rate bottomed at -2.8%. The 10-City Composite also set a new record, with an annual decline of 9.8%. In December, the 20-City Composite recorded an annual decline of 9.1%.
"We reached a somber year-end for the housing market in 2007," says Robert J. Shiller, Professor at Yale University and Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. "Home prices across the nation and in most metro areas are significantly lower than where they were a year ago. Wherever you look things look bleak, with 17 of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines and the remaining three reporting flat or moderate growth rates. Looking closely at these negative returns, you will see that 14 of the metro areas are also reporting record lows and eight are in double digit decline. The monthly data paint a similar picture, with all metro areas now reporting at least four consecutive negative monthly returns."
Miami remains the weakest market, reporting a double-digit annual decline of 17.5%, followed by Las Vegas and Phoenix at -15.3% each. In December, San Francisco slipped into negative double-digit territory with an annual return of -10.8%. Charlotte, Portland and Seattle are the only three MSAs still experiencing positive annual growth rates; however, Seattle came in at only +0.5%, an almost flat growth rate.
The table below summarizes the results for December 2007. The S&P/Case-Shiller(R) Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

                                         2007 Q4/    2007 Q3/
                            2007 Q4      2007 Q3     2007 Q2      1-Year
                             Level       Change(%)   Change(%)    Change(%)
  U.S. National Index        170.64       -5.4%       -1.8%        -8.9%

  Metropolitan Area                      December/   November/
                         December 2007   November    October      1-Year
                             Level       Change(%)   Change(%)    Change(%)
  Atlanta                    129.43       -1.5%       -1.9%        -3.4%
  Boston                     164.59       -1.7%       -1.1%        -3.4%
  Charlotte                  131.90       -0.6%       -1.0%         2.3%
  Chicago                    160.03       -1.0%       -0.9%        -4.5%
  Cleveland                  112.07       -1.1%       -2.3%        -6.3%
  Dallas                     120.77       -1.3%       -1.6%        -2.4%
  Denver                     130.98       -1.8%       -2.0%        -4.5%
  Detroit                    103.30       -1.8%       -2.7%       -13.6%
  Las Vegas                  196.05       -2.9%       -3.2%       -15.3%
  Los Angeles                233.03       -3.1%       -3.6%       -13.7%
  Miami                      231.71       -2.6%       -2.6%       -17.5%
  Minneapolis                155.37       -2.1%       -2.0%        -8.0%
  New York                   201.80       -1.3%       -0.6%        -5.6%
  Phoenix                    187.67       -3.5%       -3.1%       -15.3%
  Portland                   182.47       -0.6%       -0.8%         1.2%
  San Diego                  202.45       -3.4%       -3.4%       -15.0%
  San Francisco              189.23       -3.2%       -3.2%       -10.8%
  Seattle                    184.88       -1.2%       -1.4%         0.5%
  Tampa                      200.13       -1.6%       -1.4%       -13.3%
  Washington                 217.78       -2.5%       -1.7%        -9.4%
  Composite-10               200.55       -2.3%       -2.2%        -9.8%
  Composite-20               184.86       -2.1%       -2.1%        -9.1%

  Source: Standard & Poor's
  Data through December 2007

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