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Data through March released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller(R) Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows negative annual returns in the U.S. National Home Price Index, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite, as well as 13 of the 20 metro area indices.
The quarterly S&P/Case-Shiller(R) U.S. National Home Price Index - which covers all nine U.S. Census divisions - was down 0.7% from Q4 2006 and down 1.4% from Q1 2006. This is only the second time in the quarterly national index's history that the annual growth rate has fallen into negative territory. The first time was in the period between 1990 and 1991, as depicted in the graph above.
"The fall of the National Index into negative territory, after more than 15 years of positive annual growth, is a reaffirmation of the pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market," says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. "The National Index was yielding solid returns as recently as a year ago. Q1 2006 growth rates were up 11.5% vs. Q1 2005, a sharp contrast to the returns we are seeing today."
Most U.S. cities are moving deeper into negative terrain. Detroit and San Diego are yielding the largest annual declines at 8.4% and 6.0%, respectively. But Phoenix and Las Vegas have had the sharpest drop from their peak. Phoenix had reported a growth rate of 49.3% in September 2005, and Las Vegas was up 53.2% in September 2004. The indices are now down 3.0% and down 1.6%, respectively.
The table below summarizes the results for March 2007. The S&P/Case- Shiller(R) Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

                2007 Q1   2007 Q1/2006 Q4  2006 Q4/2006 Q3
                 Level       Change (%)       Change (%)   1-Year Change (%)
  U.S. National
   Index         185.99        -0.7%          -0.9%            -1.4%
               March 2007  March/February  February/January
  Metropolitan
   Area           Level      Change (%)      Change (%)    1-Year Change (%)

  Atlanta        133.27         0.0%          -0.1%             2.0%
  Boston         168.52         0.3%          -0.1%            -4.9%
  Charlotte      130.44         0.9%          -0.1%             7.4%
  Chicago        167.04        -0.3%           0.0%             1.3%
  Cleveland      117.69        -0.1%          -0.9%            -2.4%
  Dallas         123.46         0.4%           0.3%             1.6%
  Denver         134.20        -0.5%          -0.7%            -2.0%
  Detroit        115.55        -0.8%          -1.2%            -8.4%
  Las Vegas      228.55        -0.5%          -0.4%            -1.6%
  Los Angeles    264.58        -0.8%          -0.8%            -1.4%
  Miami          276.89        -0.9%           0.0%             1.0%
  Minneapolis    165.57        -0.8%          -0.7%            -1.9%
  New York       211.97        -0.1%          -0.2%            -1.1%
  Phoenix        216.86        -0.6%          -1.0%            -3.0%
  Portland       181.72         1.0%           0.1%             7.0%
  San Diego      233.28        -1.0%          -0.7%            -6.0%
  San Francisco  211.09         0.1%          -0.5%            -2.3%
  Seattle        186.44         0.9%           0.5%            10.0%
  Tampa          226.58        -0.8%          -0.2%            -3.0%
  Washington     236.96        -0.4%          -0.4%            -4.8%
  Composite-10   219.54        -0.4%          -0.4%            -1.9%
  Composite-20   200.89        -0.3%          -0.4%            -1.4%

Source: Standard & Poor's
Data through March 2007
The S&P/Case-Shiller(R) Composite of 10 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P/Case- Shiller(R) Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.
Web site: http://www.standardandpoors.com/.

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